UNITED NATIONS - BIRD flu in poultry and wild birds spread to 60 countries, but is entrenched only in six because of improved and faster responses, experts have said.
Despite these strides, the risk of a worldwide human- to-human pandemic remains as great today as it was when the hard-to-treat H5N1 flu strain first gained intense media attention in mid-2005, according to a new report released on Thursday by Dr David Nabarro, the United Nations official coordinating the global fight against avian influenza, and World Bank officials.
'We think it will happen sometime, but we do not know when or where,' Dr Nabarro said.
The H5N1 bird flu outbreaks have led to the slaughter of millions of birds across Asia since late 2003.The virus has killed 206 out of the 335 people who were infected, and could mutate into a form at any time that would easily spread from person to person, killing millions.
Three years ago, H5N1 was found in poultry and wild birds in only nine countries, the UN bird flu coordinator said.
It remains entrenched throughout Indonesia and in parts of Bangladesh, Vietnam, Egypt, Nigeria and China, posing a threat not just to these countries, but the world, Dr Nabarro said.
Indonesia's bird flu death toll has reached 44 so far, making the country the worst-hit in terms of human fatalities.
China has confirmed 24 human cases of H5N1 infection - 15 of them fatal - a World Health Organisation report said, while in Bangladesh, the bird flu virus has been spreading in poultry flocks ever since it was first detected in March this year.
But the report said that most of the affected countries had taken the threat seriously and were building up the infrastructure needed to fight outbreaks.
'The efforts of thousands of good men and women are starting to pay off,' Dr Nabarro said.
He warned that domestic animals could act as a 'time bomb', providing a place for the virus to hide and change, possibly into a pandemic strain.
'Livestock and farm animals are a kind of time bomb in our midst. We must rear our animals in a healthy way,' he said.
The report said that 'controlling disease in animals lies at the root of preventing human infections and reducing the probability of a pandemic'.
'Once the virus is entrenched, control and elimination become a major challenge, and the risk of human infection with H5N1 increases,' it said.
One problem is the lack of veterinary services in poor countries, some of which do not even have the facilities to test for bird flu. And some countries, especially in Africa, lack the capacity to diagnose bird flu in people.
The report was based on surveys of 146 countries, 95 per cent of which said they had a bird flu plan.
The countries that have taken action to prevent the spread of bird flu now need to move to longer-term strategies, 'with an increased focus on bio-security in both family and commercial poultry production systems', said the report.
It also recommended sharing virus samples between countries.
The UN and Indonesia have been arguing over how to share such samples.
Indonesia fears that any vaccine developed by drug companies from its samples could be prohibitively expensive and out of reach to poor countries.
